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  • Arizona's NCAA Tournament Seeding

    Arizona is now halfway through the conference season and Selection Sunday is 6 weeks from today so I think it is reasonable to start taking a look at potential NCAA seeding.

    Due to Arizona's woeful showing in the Bahamas, the weakness of the PAC-12 and disappointing teams like Texas A&M, Alabama, and Connecticut, Arizona's ceiling is a 2 seed. To achieve this Arizona would need to win the regular season and conference tournament championships plus get some "help" from teams ahead of them in bracket projections.

    If Arizona takes care of its' business, the teams to watch for the next 6 weeks are Xavier, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Auburn, Michigan State, and Clemson, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. These teams are currently seeded ahead and just behind of Arizona in the Bracket Matrix. Here are the big games they still have left in the regular season:

    Xavier: @Butler, @Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova, and Providence.

    North Carolina: @Clemson, Duke, @NC State, @Louisville, @Syracuse, Miami, @Duke

    West Virginia: Kansas State, @Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, @Kansas, @Baylor, Texas Tech, @Texas

    Oklahoma: @Texas, West Virginia, @Texas Tech, @Kansas, Kansas State, @Baylor

    Auburn: Kentucky, @South Carolina, Alabama, @Florida, @Arkansas, South Carolina

    Michigan State: @Indiana, Purdue, @Northwestern

    Clemson: @Georgia Tech, North Carolina, @Florida State, Duke, @Virginia Tech, @Syracuse

    Cincinnati: @SMU, Wichita State, @Wichita State

    Texas Tech: @TCU, @Kansas State, Oklahoma, @Baylor, @Oklahoma State, Kansas, @West Virginia, TCU

    Ohio State: @Purdue, @Penn State, @Michigan, @Indiana


    As you can see, the Big 12 schools (WV, OU, and TT) have brutal schedules and are going to lose games. North Carolina has a brutal schedule left. Auburn, Clemson, Xavier, and Ohio State have tough schedules left. Michigan State and Cincinnati look as if they will coast into their conference tournaments. In other words, there will be opportunities for Arizona to move up in bracket projections IF they can take care of their own business.

    Thoughts?


  • #2
    I assume we will lose around 3 more games before the NCAA tourney.

    If we somehow run the table, I don’t think a 1-seed is out of the question.

    4 losses with a Top-50 SOS and finishing with wins in 27 if our last 28 is convincing enough to the committee.

    The LA homestand and ASSU game will tell us a lot about this team.

    Comment


    • #3
      Hoping for a 2-seed, but they really shit the bed in the Bahamas. Thats what a lot of people will remember, even though nobody was able to see the games. If they continue to win, I see a likely 3, and worst case 4 seed.

      Comment


      • #4
        We're a low 3 seed / high 4 seed currently; getting through the rest of the NCONF without a loss would put us in low 2 seed territory based on who we'd be beating (imho). If we won the PAC12 tourney as well (assuming another USC win in there), that'd give us a high 2...I just can't see a 1 unless the top guys somehow shit the bed late.

        Comment


        • #5
          2 seed possible, not probable. 3-4 more likely. More important is who is in our bracket and where we play. Do we really want to play in California again?
          But do not want to play in Eastern time zone either, can lead to some early starts

          Kenpom has us at 27 which would be a low 6 seed, that would be bad news and a tough road

          Last edited by Wildcat Dad; 01-28-2018, 07:25 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by KansasCityCats View Post
            I assume we will lose around 3 more games before the NCAA tourney.

            If we somehow run the table, I don’t think a 1-seed is out of the question.

            4 losses with a Top-50 SOS and finishing with wins in 27 if our last 28 is convincing enough to the committee.

            The LA homestand and ASSU game will tell us a lot about this team.

            I agree - but I think the Oregon - ASU road trip will define the team. I think we lose 2 - one in Oregon and one that surprises us. My guess is a 3-4 seed....maybe a 2 if we only drop one - win the PAC 12 and PAC12 Tourney

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Wildcat Dad View Post
              2 seed possible, not probable. 3-4 more likely. More important is who is in our bracket and where we play. Do we really want to play in California again?
              But do not want to play in Eastern time zone either, can lead to some early starts

              Kenpom has us at 27 which would be a low 6 seed, that would be bad news and a tough road
              How accurate is KenPom with regards to seeding ?? I have no clue on his history in how he aligns with the committee

              Comment


              • #8
                I don't think they used him into past but I think he is part of the metric this year

                Comment


                • #9
                  If I were to guess, I'd say we get a #4 seed. But I'm not overly concerned how high a seed we get. Does it really matter? Under Miller AZ has advanced just as far with a #5 seed (in '11) as with a #1 and #2 seed - which was an Elite Eight. No matter where we're seeded you just know the selection committee is gonna put AZ in the same bracket as Purdue and probably Xavier again. Or even ASU. Cuz possibly playing them for a potential 4th time would be so much fun.
                  Last edited by Deb; 01-28-2018, 10:16 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    With us running the table we get a 1 seed. Chances ate high that all the other teams ahead of us take a couple losses and we keep climbing. That being said there's a good chance we take 1 or 2 more losses and end up with a 3 or 4 seed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      After barely escaping with Wildcat hide from a McKale home stand, I'm afraid sweeping the table is overly optimistic. There will be some bruises out there. Remember that Lute always hated the conference tournament because anything can happen.

                      This old grad will agree with 3 or 4 seed. Now prove us dourcats wrong and play D.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I don't thnk even if by some miracle we won out our remaining 9 games we could be any better than a 3 seed because of the weakness in the Pac 12. Using KenPom for rankings, here is where our remaining opponents rate - Wash st - 158; Wash- 91; UCLA- 59; USC-48; ASU- 28: Oregon st - 112: Oregon - 75; Stan - 99; and Cal - 225. Except for the scummies and USC there are none in the top 50. So quality wins against quality opponents are not there for us. I am guessing a 4 seed with two losses in this nine game stretch. What I want to see is sigificantly more progress on being able to play solid defense. Thought we made solid progress against the Utes, but still have a long way to go. I also think our long term outlook is significantly impacted by Rawle's health. If he can get healthy and contribute I like our chances a lot more. And finally we need to not play any more games with Brown as a ref.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The real question will be how much our losses in the Bahamas get discounted because we didn't have Rawle.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by tomcat View Post
                            I don't thnk even if by some miracle we won out our remaining 9 games we could be any better than a 3 seed because of the weakness in the Pac 12. Using KenPom for rankings, here is where our remaining opponents rate - Wash st - 158; Wash- 91; UCLA- 59; USC-48; ASU- 28: Oregon st - 112: Oregon - 75; Stan - 99; and Cal - 225. Except for the scummies and USC there are none in the top 50. So quality wins against quality opponents are not there for us. I am guessing a 4 seed with two losses in this nine game stretch. What I want to see is sigificantly more progress on being able to play solid defense. Thought we made solid progress against the Utes, but still have a long way to go. I also think our long term outlook is significantly impacted by Rawle's health. If he can get healthy and contribute I like our chances a lot more. And finally we need to not play any more games with Brown as a ref.
                            I'd put our odds of winning out at maybe .03% chance. We ain't doing it. But if by some crazy chance that happened, to think we wouldn't be a 2 seed at least, with an outside chance at a 1 seed, is not realistic. If we win out, we'd go into the NCAA Tourney on an 18-game win streak and having won 27-of-28 since Bahamas, with a 30-4 overall record. We'd almost assuredly be ranked Top 3 in the country, and deep bracket analysis shows that despite the committee's stated criteria, rankings do play a role in seeding. That's an absolute 2 seed, regardless of how much we crapped the bed in Bahamas.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The tourney is going to be an absolute MESS this year.

                              There is no consistency in college basketball and that is favorable to Arizona.

                              We have a lot of positives going into the final stretch:

                              -Rawle probably returning
                              -Win close games (9-1 in our last 10 decided by single digits)
                              -Much improved since last season at the FT line
                              -Played other Power-5 conference schools that will likely make the tourney
                              -Good mix of upperclassmen and freshmen
                              -A coach that wants to make the Final Four more than any other D-1 name

                              There's a good chance that the Cats don't make the Final Four in 2018-19...so this is a huge opportunity for Arizona to become an "underdog" and make a run in March.

                              I have a hotel reserved in San Antonio..."just in case".

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by tomcat View Post
                                I don't thnk even if by some miracle we won out our remaining 9 games we could be any better than a 3 seed because of the weakness in the Pac 12. Using KenPom for rankings, here is where our remaining opponents rate - Wash st - 158; Wash- 91; UCLA- 59; USC-48; ASU- 28: Oregon st - 112: Oregon - 75; Stan - 99; and Cal - 225. Except for the scummies and USC there are none in the top 50. So quality wins against quality opponents are not there for us. I am guessing a 4 seed with two losses in this nine game stretch. What I want to see is sigificantly more progress on being able to play solid defense. Thought we made solid progress against the Utes, but still have a long way to go. I also think our long term outlook is significantly impacted by Rawle's health. If he can get healthy and contribute I like our chances a lot more. And finally we need to not play any more games with Brown as a ref.
                                Sorry, but there is zero chance of us getting a 3 seed if we win out and win the pac12 tourney. We'll easily be a 2 and in all likelihood be the 1 seed out west. Villanova appears to easily have the East 1, Virginia the South 1, the Midwest 1 is up for grabs and we'd be a top 3 or top 4 team winning out and be placed in the West 1.

                                SOS is used more for the tough decisions in seedings, not the top 4 seeds. If you're ranked 1 thru 4 in the polls your probabilities of getting one of the 1 seeds is 95% or higher.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  This year in college basketball has been a rollercoaster for a lot of teams. I agree that if we can handle our business and win the pac 12 and pac 12 tourney along with some of those other teams maybe faltering near the end of conference play, we could definitely get at least a 2 seed. Worst cast I say 4 or 5 seed.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    As of last night's action, the Bracket Matrix has Arizona as a solid 3 seed.

                                    Arizona is trying to catch the following teams to move into the 2 seed line: Clemson, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Auburn, and Xavier.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      All of those teams should get at least 2 more losses.

                                      Hoping the Cats end up in San Diego for the opening rounds (although Wichita would be nice...for greedy purposes).

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Perhaps someone can help me. Although I do not understand how all the analytics work, I have always thought KenPom to be a reliable, accurate source to the true strength of teams. But the there seems to be some dissonance in his Top 20.

                                        KenPom has Gonzaga at 9 and St. Mary's at 11. Looking at their profiles here is what you find:

                                        Gonzaga
                                        1. Only has 4 Top 100 wins
                                        2. Their last Top 100 win was on December 10th!
                                        3. Has a loss to a 128 ranked team
                                        4. 16 of their 20 wins are over teams ranked 136 or worse!
                                        5. SOS is 171st

                                        St. Mary's
                                        1. Only has 5 Top 100 wins (2 of these against same team BYU)
                                        2. Their best win is against New Mexico State
                                        3. Has a loss to a 162 ranked team
                                        4. 17 of their 22 wins are over teams ranked 115 or worse!
                                        5. SOS is 138th

                                        To contrast, here is Arizona:
                                        1. With a win over Washington, Arizona would have 10 Top 100 wins
                                        2. That means Arizona would only have 10 wins over teams ranked 152 or worse
                                        3. Worst loss is SMU at 68
                                        4. SOS is 41st

                                        Then, if you look at the Bracket Matrix, Gonzaga is projected as a 7 seed and St. Mary's is projected as a 8 seed. That means bracketologists see Gonzaga ranked between 25-28 and St. Mary's ranked 29-32.

                                        How can there be such a difference? Why is KenPom giving these two teams so much credit for what are clearly piss-poor resumes? I am hoping someone with numbers and analytics understanding can help me understand. Thanks
                                        Last edited by SCDave; 02-02-2018, 07:07 PM.

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by SCDave View Post
                                          Perhaps someone can help me. Although I do not understand how all the analytics work, I have always thought KenPom to be a reliable, accurate source to the true strength of teams. But the there seems to be some dissonance in his Top 20.

                                          KenPom has Gonzaga at 9 and St. Mary's at 11. Looking at their profiles here is what you find:

                                          Gonzaga
                                          1. Only has 4 Top 100 wins
                                          2. Their last Top 100 win was on December 10th!
                                          3. Has a loss to a 128 ranked team
                                          4. 16 of their 20 wins are over teams ranked 136 or worse!
                                          5. SOS is 171st

                                          St. Mary's
                                          1. Only has 5 Top 100 wins (2 of these against same team BYU)
                                          2. Their best win is against New Mexico State
                                          3. Has a loss to a 162 ranked team
                                          4. 17 of their 22 wins are over teams ranked 115 or worse!
                                          5. SOS is 138th

                                          To contrast, here is Arizona:
                                          1. With a win over Washington, Arizona would have 10 Top 100 wins
                                          2. That means Arizona would only have 10 wins over teams ranked 152 or worse
                                          3. Worst loss is SMU at 68
                                          4. SOS is 41st

                                          Then, if you look at the Bracket Matrix, Gonzaga is projected as a 7 seed and St. Mary's is projected as a 8 seed. That means bracketologists see Gonzaga ranked between 25-28 and St. Mary's ranked 29-32.

                                          How can there be such a difference? Why is KenPom giving these two teams so much credit for what are clearly piss-poor resumes? I am hoping someone with numbers and analytics understanding can help me understand. Thanks
                                          I'm guessing MOV is a big part of it.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            So schedule crap teams and Kenpom gives you credit when you beat them badly? Sounds like a fail on Kenpom's algorithms

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              From following KenPom fairly closely for years I can tell you that MOV is a huge factor in overall ranking. His algorithm will give a projected score and margin of victory, if you win by about that, you stay roughly the same. If you win by less or lose you drop, if you win by more than what’s projected then you move up

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by Wildcat Dad View Post
                                                So schedule crap teams and Kenpom gives you credit when you beat them badly? Sounds like a fail on Kenpom's algorithms
                                                Its about beating them by more than the algorithm expects based upon how they've done against other competition. I think Kenpom would agree that it is a potential difficulty with the formula--what is the real difference in beating a bad team by 20 vs 30? But think a couple years ago when we drew Wichita in the tourney. He had them as a Top 10 team despite their low seed, then they came out and whooped us like we were another MVC team.

                                                And MOV is why we aren't ranked very highly. 5 Pac-12 home games and we haven't yet won by double-digits, that's very very unimpressive.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by Applequest View Post



                                                  And MOV is why we aren't ranked very highly. 5 Pac-12 home games and we haven't yet won by double-digits, that's very very unimpressive.
                                                  Just win, baby!

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